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Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks – what to do?

May 14, 2012 by Hunter Golden

Trade me? You serious, bro?

“It’s better to deal a player a year too early than to keep him a year too late.” – Branch Rickey

So you’re Boston Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington and you’ve got a choice to make.

Keep Kevin Youkilis – the guy who’s more or less been your most consistently productive hitter over the past 3-4 years or go with the younger, molten hot, super-high-ceiling-but-likely-to-regress-pretty-f*&ing hard- prospect in Will Middlebrooks.

On the surface, it would make baseball sense to deal Youk. He’s aging, injury prone, expensive and his skills – especially defensively – seem to be on the decline. Some teams have expressed interest, so why not deal him for something you need and in the process, trim some payroll?
It’s be great if that’s the way the world worked, but frankly – things aren’t that black and white.

There’s been a lot made of the starting pitching on this team and proponents of dealing Youkilis keep citing that he could be used to fill in the deficiency. Reality would probably dictate that it’s not likely to happen.

In fact, if you want to know how to instantly insure you get nothing in return for a player in a Major League Baseball trade, make sure he’s everything that Kevin Youkilis is: aging, expensive, injury prone, and declining in offensive and defensive skill.

Long story short – if Red Sox fans think Youkilis is going to net the team anything in return, they’re probably crazy. Even IF Youkilis can start producing again, there’s still the issue of age, dollars and health. Unless the Red Sox are willing to absorb a considerable amount of money in a deal, he’s not going anywhere. While a hypothetical exchange might make sense on a lot of levels and truth be told – may be something the Red Sox have to do, they’re not going to get a lot in return.

Still, there’s a compelling case to be made for dealing Youkilis, and it has nothing to do with him and everything to do with Will Middlebrooks. In fact, the conversation really shouldn’t be about ‘what do we do with Kevin Youkilis,’ but rather ‘What can we do to ensure the continued growth and development of Will Middlebrooks?’

After tearing Triple-A pitching to pieces and continuing his work in the majors, everyone’s realized that we’re now getting to a point where sending Middlebrooks back could be potentially detrimental to his growth. Most would agree – he needs to remain on the active roster, but like the Youkilis trade scenario, it’s not as black and white as it appears on the surface.

In fact, it opens up discussion on a whole swath of questions, including, but not limited to:

Where does he play? In the outfield? What happens when Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury come back? Who sits? Ryan Sweeney? Does he ride the pine behind Youkilis and is it healthy for him to do so? Will he regress and if so, how extreme will the slide be? Can the Red Sox live with that? What happens if he gets hurt?

Anyway you cut it, it’s a lot to think about. Granted, it’s a good problem to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless.

When it all boils down to it, I feel like the Red Sox are sitting at the roulette wheel with two bets to make. Black (Youkilis) or Red (Middlebrooks).

Bet #1 is to stick with Youk. You’re gambling that he A.) bounces back and B.) can stay healthy enough to help the team over the course of the year. You’re also running the risk that Youk’s presence could potentially delay or stunt the growth of your top prospect.
Bet #2 would be to go with Middlebrooks and trade Youkilis. Here, you’re realizing that you’re getting nothing but light salary relief in exchange for Youkilis, but also playing strong odds that Middlebrooks DOES NOT regress lower than league average. If something happens to Middlebrooks, the team could potentially be in trouble, but it’s not as if the team’s production at 3B leading up to his promotion was anything special.

Both are sound bets, but the one ingredient left out of both bets is the cost of placing them. You either spend whatever Youkilis is owed and hope for the best, or pay most of what is owed and save some money gambling on Middlebrooks. To be honest, given how this season has gone so far, I really have a hard time imagining a scenario where you wouldn’t go with Middlebrooks. Even more – if this team is in the thick of things, I think trading Youkilis might make even more sense.

Offense isn’t an issue on this team and with Crawford and Ellsbury coming back, the loss in production would be negligible. Considering there are needs elsewhere on the roster, it could give the Sox some added payroll flexibility heading forward. And let’s face it – anytime you have the chance to add a productive talent to a premium position for league minimum, it’s just sound business.

I like Youkilis, but I’m having a great deal of difficulty imagining a scenario where it’d make a lot of sense to keep him on the roster for much longer.

Posted in Kevin Youkilis, Will Middlebrooks, 2012 Boston Red Sox | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment »

Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up: a note on sample sizes

May 11, 2012 by Hunter Golden

Making conclusions off of a few starts isn’t really all that wise.

There’s been a lot made of Josh Beckett in the last day or so, but just to bring people back to earth a bit, a little something about sample sizes.

So far this year, he has pitched in six games and has been pulverized in two of them. In the other three, he’s pitched pretty well. People are trying to diagnose his psyche while others are wondering where his fastball velocity went. All valid questions, I suppose – but the real issue here is the sample size. We’re talking a few innings worth of work which makes it really difficult to make any sort of sweeping conclusions, of which everyone and their mother is trying to do today.

This is hardly crack-science on my part, but just something to chew on. I went back to the last SIX seasons and pulled a totally random sample of SIX starts from each year where he had at least 130 IP (2010 got kicked to the curb). No rhyme, nor reason. It should give you an idea of just how volatile returns can be and how a small snap shot might not be indicative of overall performance.

2011 Random Sampling

5/19 vs Detroit
6/4 vs Oakland
6/28 vs Philadelphia
7/28 vs Kansas City
8/13 vs Seattle
9/16 vs Tampa Bay

Sample Total: 4.75 ERA, 7.25 K/9, 2.75 BB/9
Season Total: 2.89 ERA, 8.16 K/9, 2.42 BB/9

Nearly a full two points difference in ERA, a full point in strikeouts and an actual decrease in walks. Obviously, the sample paints a different picture from the year he had.

2009 Random sampling

4/12 vs Los Angeles Angels
5/23 vs New York Mets
6/14 vs Philadelphia
9/2 vs Tampa Bay
9/12 vs Tampa Bay

Sample Total: 4.75 ERA, 8.07 K/9, 1.15 BB/9
Season Total: 3.86 ERA, 8.43 K/9 , 2.33 BB/9

Again, strike outs went up, walks went up almost a whole point, ERA came down almost an entire point.

2008 Random Sampling

4/17 vs New York Yankees
5/24 vs Oakland
6/29 vs Houston
8/5 vs Kansas City
9/5 vs Texas
9/22 vs Cleveland

Sample Total: 2.98 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 1.14 BB/9
Season Total: 4.03 ERA, 8.88 K/9, 1.76 BB/9

Colossal difference in ERA, although this time the strikeout and walk rates stayed mostly the same. Could have been that the Red Sox defense stunk behind him for most of the season, but not for that period of time.

2007 Random Sampling

4/21 vs New York Yankees
5/13 vs Baltimore
6/14 vs Colorado
7/20 vs Chicago White Sox
8/24 vs Chicago White Sox
9/27 vs Minnesota

Sample Totals: 6.65 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.89 BB/9
Season Totals: 3.27 ERA, 8.70 K/9, 1.79 BB/9

Perhaps Beckett’s best season, but you sure wouldn’t know it from this sampling. His walk rate is it’s highest of all the random samples, but so is his strikeout rate. His ERA is through the roof. Certainly doesn’t tell the whole tale, does it?

2006 Random Sampling

4/11 vs Toronto
5/9 vs New York Yankees
5/30 vs Toronto
6/17 vs Atlanta
7/24 vs. Oakland
9/9 vs Kansas City

Sample totals: 4.71 ERA, 6.59 K/9, 2.82 BB/9
Season totals: 5.01 ERA, 6.95 K/9, 3.25 BB/9

Obviously a bad season for Beckett and for the first time, a sample that reflects it. Oh well, 1 for 6 isn’t bad I suppose.

2005 Random Sampling

4/20 vs New York Mets
5/29 vs New York Mets
7/23 vs San Francisco
8/8 vs Colorado
9/8 vs Washington
9/13 vs Houston

Sample Total: 2.70 ERA, 8.32 K/9, 2.25 BB/9
Season Total: 3.37 ERA, 8.36 K/9, 2.92 BB/9

OK – so another one. So two of the six samples were actually indicative of how Josh pitched in a given season.

My point here isn’t to point out anything terribly ‘AHA’ other than the fact that it’s really hard to conclude much of anything from smaller sample sizes. All we can do is look at long term trends and make hypothesis based on those. Each of these samples paints a picture of a different pitcher in nearly all of them. 2007 Josh Beckett struck out a lot of guys, but seemed to give up a lot of runs. Why? No idea –we’re looking at the surface. 2009 Josh Beckett was painting until he wasn’t. 2006 Beckett struggled to do anything right while 2005 Beckett could do no wrong. Again – sample sizes paint shaky pictures.

SO before we begin diagnosing Beckett, let’s at least agree that we haven’t seen enough of him to really diagnose what, exactly, is going on. My guess? His fastball velocity is dipping and has been for some time. Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs wrote an interesting mini-piece on it. He thinks he’s hurt. Based on his delivery opening day and his inability to get swings and misses on his 2-strike pitches, he may be onto something. The walk rate, while a little high for Beckett, really hasn’t been all that different, so it’s certainly not his control. We’ll see.

But again, the point of this should be perfectly clear: before you bail, think about how cold the water might be.

Posted in 2012 Boston Red Sox, Josh Beckett | Tagged , | Leave a Comment »

This is rock-bottom, people.

May 11, 2012 by Hunter Golden

“Did he just ask you what position your wife likes it in?”

Whether you’re an advanced metrics guy or not, Josh Beckett was a pretty fantastic pitcher in 2011 sporting a 2.89 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 3.58 xFIP and 3.43 SIERA. He had the lowest walk rate of his career and one of the lowest LD% of any pitcher in baseball. He had the third best season of his career in terms of strikeouts – whiffing 175 batters. This in spite of coming off two injury-plagued years, with the distraction of a pregnant wife and two disappointing finishes for the Red Sox. Is that really the portrait of a guy who doesn’t care anymore?

Of course, none of that means anything in Boston when you get lit up in your last appearance of the season on a bad ankle you didn’t use as an excuse and a wife about to go into labor a few hundred miles away on your mind.

Nope, in Boston, where the ‘special’ population is exploding – you take that guy, call him a douchebag and trade him when his value is at it’s lowest. You take almost nothing in return and agree to pay half his salary so he can turn it around elsewhere while your team scrambles to fill more holes in an already awful rotation. That’ll do the trick!

And oh yeah – make sure you blame it on Bobby Valentine while you’re at it.

And boy oh boy – don’t go golfing on the day off. In fact, why do these guys have days off!? Shouldn’t they always be kept in a plastic case somewhere and be made to practice their swing all day, every day? C’mon guys, show me your love of the game. I mean we all know that REAL PEEPLE don’t have days off like these SPOILEDLOLOLOL RICH GUYS do.

Some folks have pointed out that Beckett on the links is just a big deal because the team’s losing. Matt Stairs just admitted tonight on NESN that he used to play hockey on his off days and played for some teams that were way worse than this team. I bet had he taken his job seriously that he’d have taken the 2001 Cubs to infinity and beyond. I’ve never read a single story in my life that used an off-day activity to try and paint a personality profile of someone – ever. And I mean ever.

But hey – this is Boston in 2012. The Globe’s hiring mostly stupid assholes now, because anyone who can really write is doing it on the internet and not for a sinking shithole of a newspaper. Same goes for the Herald, which only distinguishes itself in so much as their staff uses crayon – not computers – to write their stories.

And speaking of dumb reporters, there’s that ‘Baseball isn’t the most important thing in my life anymore’ quote that’s been incomprehensibly taken out of context to exclude the stuff about his new daughter and family before he actually uttered those words. Of course, that would imply that Josh Beckett cares about a family, which would make him too much like us. No, instead Beckett should just trade his wife and daughter to Dick’s Sporting goods in exchange for a tub of protein shake powder and a new glove. FOR THE LOVE OF THE GAME MAN~!

I love the fact we won two World Series and have been utterly spoiled with great teams and a beautiful, gleaming park to go along with it over the past few years. But Red Sox fans are insufferable douchebags now and the media’s over-eagerness to pour gasoline on the fire has done more to hurt this team’s chances of turning this season around then it has to hold a bunch of supposedly whiney brats accountable for things they did or didn’t do.

After watching the feeding frenzy around Beckett and a few others on this team, it would blow my mind as to why players would want to come here. The golf story is – and probably should be – exhibit A as to how insufferable we’ve become as a sports culture. This is the most embarrassed I’ve been for Red Sox fans, the media and the sports scene as a whole in a long time.

This is rock bottom, people. 

Posted in 2012 Boston Red Sox | Tagged , , | 1 Comment »

Carl Beane dies in a car crash

May 9, 2012 by Hunter Golden

Terrible news today out of Sturbridge – Carl Beane, who’s been the voice of Fenway Park since 2003 died today in a car accident after his car veered off of Holland Road in Southbridge, MA. His car had careened into the left hand lane and slammed into a wall and some trees. He was pronounced dead shortly before 1pm.

I’ll certainly miss Carl’s voice at Fenway. He was really everything that was right about baseball in New England. I might have more later on, but I think this video of him at a Thompson Little League game sums him up a whole heck of a lot better than I ever could, so I’ll let him speak for himself. RIP, Carl. Fenway won’t be the same.

 

Posted in 2012 Boston Red Sox, Carl Beane | Tagged , , | Leave a Comment »

Want something to REALLY complain about?

April 27, 2012 by Hunter Golden

Should the Red Sox reevaluate their medical staff? PHOTO CREDIT: MIT NEWS (Joseph Paradiso and Alexander Reben)

Forget complaining about the crappy bullpen. Forget complaining about Bobby Valentine’s usage of crappy pitchers in said crappy bullpen. Want something to complain about?

How about this:

The Boston Red Sox currently have $67,670,000’s worth of baseball players on the disabled list. That’s more than six MLB teams have in total payroll.

Conceptualize that for a second: The Red Sox have more money on their disabled list than the Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Oakland A’s and San Diego Padres pay every player in their respective organizations to play the game of baseball.

Why isn’t this being talked about?

Why is it that this medical staff – regardless of who’s in charge – seems to misdiagnose at least one major injury to a major star almost every year?

There are other issues that should raise concern as well, like…

  • Why was John Lackey allowed to pitch the majority of last year in spite of having a torn ligament in his elbow?
  • What were the issues with diagnosing Bobby Jenks’ back? The same diagnosis – by the way – that concluded in him going to get surgery. A surgery that almost got him killed.

And then there’s the Carl Crawford thing again – which should raise some eyebrows – especially in lieu of the statement issued today which I found to be a little unsettling:

“Carl Crawford was examined by the Red Sox medical staff. He was diagnosed as having a left elbow ulnar collateral ligament sprain. A conservative treatment protocol was recommended. Carl was also examined by Dr. James Andrews, who was in agreement with the assessment and plan. Carl received a Platelet Rich Plasma (PRP) injection and will be shut down from baseball activity during the initial phase of his treatment.”

So let me get this straight. Last we checked –the Red Sox were telling the press that his arm was in pain but the team didn’t think there was anything obviously wrong with it. Now they’re changing their tune to ‘we knew about it, Dr. Andrews thankfully validated our finding! TOLD YOU EVEN THOUGH WE DIDN’T!!’

So did they just admit to lying? Or is their process just that flawed?

And I emphasize that word, too – process. To their credit, the Red Sox have cycled through a few PCP’s in the last couple of years, but it doesn’t seem to matter who’s there.  Doctors keep whiffing (badly at that) on their diagnosis. That would lead you to think that perhaps the issue isn’t the Doctors so much as the process, itself.

Now let’s be abundantly clear here – I’m not an Athletic Trainer and am far too stupid to be a Doctor. My knowledge of sports medicine is slim to negative none. But the trend is concerning.

The problem isn’t injuries or the frequency in which they occur. It’s that many of these injuries are being misdiagnosed and in some cases, making the injuries worse as a result.

I get that injuries can be complicated. I get that people’s pain tolerances vary. But are they this complicated- and moreover – can the Red Sox switch anything in their approach to how they deal with them? Considering their track record since 2010, it seems like a reasonable question to ask.

For years, Boston was known as a great place to play ball and a big part of that had to do with the reputation of the team’s crack medical staff. Frankly, I’m not so sure that’s true anymore.

Posted in 2012 Boston Red Sox, Red Sox Medical Staff | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Bullpen isn’t an easy fix… and won’t be for a while.

April 22, 2012 by Hunter Golden

About the number of viable ML pitcher the Red Sox have are in this photo.

It’s a hard pill for folks to swallow, but the bullpen isn’t going to fix itself over night and even more depressing – there probably isn’t any real help coming anytime soon. Twitter was a complete mess tonight – full of hysterical tweets about what the Red Sox should do and what they shouldn’t do, so yeah… another day in paradise in Red Sox Nation.

Just some food for though thought…

Daniel Bard to the bullpen isn’t the answer – If the problem with the Red Sox pitching is their lack of quality starters, then it makes no sense for them to remove Bard from the rotation. If the bullpen is the issue, then it double doesn’t make sense. The less quality you have in your rotation means the more you have to use your bullpen. Removing Bard from the rotation means less quality in your rotation and more usage of your poor pitching in the bullpen. Bard as closer sounds good, but who’s going to get you to him right now? All moving Bard to the ‘pen would mean is that the Boston Red Sox would use Bard less. Less Bard pitching is bad for the Boston Red Sox.

Firing Bobby Valentine isn’t the answer, either – Last time I checked, Bobby Valentine isn’t, nor has he ever been – a Major League pitcher. He’s done a poor job of managing the bullpen and yes – that hasn’t helped. But we really don’t know what’s driving that poor usage. Does anyone trust a single arm in this bullpen right now? Does it really mean that much that he’s bringing in Matt Albers over Franklin Morales at this point given their poor performance? Would it even matter if Tito Francona was managing this team and was bringing in the right guys? This would be one thing if Valentine had to choose between Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Mike Timlin or a 2011 Alfredo Aceves. It’s a different thing when your choice is between 2012 Aceves and six other guys who just can’t get the ball over the plate. It may keep knuckle-dragging Red Sox fans and sports writers happy for 3-4 days, but that’s about it. Remember ‘Fire Tito’ at the beginning of last year?

I’m not pretending to have the solution, here – but let’s not just start barking about stuff for the sake of making noise and confusing ‘urgency’ with constructive criticism. Right now, without any kind of trade market established the options are going to be limited. The best the Red Sox can do is put the staff together that gives them the highest likelihood of wining and hope that one or two guys figures it out – at least until a trade market develops. There’s a good chance the Red Sox can’t hold on until then. But at this point, there really aren’t a lot of options on the table.

And just to make sure we don’t go through this one more time – no, Roy Oswalt probably isn’t the solution, either.

Posted in 2012 Boston Red Sox | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Dear Red Sox Nation – Shut Up.

April 9, 2012 by Hunter Golden

Chill out, people.

Red Sox fans need to calm down. Now.

The hullabaloo around last year’s slow start was irritating enough, especially in light of the fact that by the end of May, the team that face-planted to a 2-12 mark out of the gate, was in first place. Sounding the alarm after three games this on the other hand –well, there’s nothing irritating about it. It’s just plain stupid.

We’re three games into the season without a win and three loses. Two of those losses were walk-off losses against one of the best offenses in the Major Leagues in their home ballpark.

Josh Beckett got lit up. Clay Buchholz looked pretty bad, too. The bullpen has been OK, but has failed to close out two save opportunities between two pitchers. And guess what? These things happen early in the season.

Daniel Bard hasn’t pitched a single inning as a starter and people are already demanding he be put back into the ‘pen. If you’re on Twitter during games, the first pitcher out of the bullpen to get an out all of a sudden becomes the new closer. They’re having a heart attack over Nick Punto leading off even though he went 3 for 6 today with 3 RBI’s.

Red Sox fans have always been skittish, but this is anything but that. This is flat-out insufferable.

If this is what’s causing people to ponder packing it in this early, then here’s some food for your self-absorbed, over-dramatic face:

Closers who’ve blown saves so far this year:

The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves are all 0-3. The Angels got lit up like a pinball machine against the Kansas City Royals. The Phillies dropped 2 of 3 to the Pirates despite throwing Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. The Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets are undefeated.

Joining Josh Beckett on the list of starters who got hammered for 5 or more earned runs in their first start:

If dropping three games to a good team on the road is what constitutes a ‘disaster’, then Red Sox fans are the ones who need to check themselves. Not the team. And if you think this is dicey, then you need to buckle in. Our next four series are against the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. There’s a good chance this team could barely be sniffing four games under .500 by the end of April. If they do finish .500, then this is going to be a killer team.

For me, the couch fainting act on the part of fans is tired, especially when it’s really to do nothing other than hear yourself act like a dramatic asshole.

We are three games into the season, folks. Three games. Please try to embrace some assemblence of perspective and dial down the hysteria about ten notches. I’m trying to watch the game.

Posted in 2012 Boston Red Sox, Clay Buchholz | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

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