Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Tuning out the noise around the Red Sox offseason

February 1, 2012 by Hunter Golden

I love trash picking.

So I guess it’s time I got off my can and finally write something again… but I’ll be honest, it’s taken me a few weeks to figure out what to write about… and even with all that time, I’ve failed miserably. So here’s some random stuff for you to chew on:

Marco Scutaro traded to the Rockies for some guy – I know people are going to hate me for saying this, but anyone who thought we were seriously going to get anything of note in return for an out and out salary dump of a 36 year old Shortstop with declining defensive value this late in the offseason has got to be smoking something. While Nick Punto and Mike Aviles are not a perfect platoon – they should do just fine. Punto’s patience and defense should compliment the ‘good enough’ bat of Aviles nicely. Let’s not forget, Aviles has been a pretty solid player when he’s had the opportunity to play full time, hitting .300 in each season and posting a completely acceptable .833 and .748 OPS in those seasons, respectively. Interestingly enough, Bill James has him projected at a .734 OPS next year which would put him a point above last year’s AL average for OPS with a min. of 400 plate appearances (.733).

The story here though, is still the salary dump – which is a sound one. A lot of people had discussed the idea of trading Kevin Youkilis, but considering his age and recent injury history, the Red Sox would have been trading him when his value was low. Sure, you could make the case that bringing David Ortiz back was a mistake, but considering he’s a far more productive offensive player than Scutaro, that wasn’t likely to happen. Scutaro was the one guy they could move who would both save the Red Sox money and hurt them the least in terms of lost production. It’s safe to say a healthy Kevin Youkilis, re-wired Carl Crawford or a good-to-go Adrian Gonzalez make up for that lack of production rather quickly. Defensively, the move is a wash.

Financially, the move makes even more sense as WEEI’s Alex Speier pointed out a few weeks ago. In addition to saving on Scutaro’s salary, the team didn’t have to pay a $1.5 million buy-out on his option year. All in all, the move saved them $7.5 million dollars – of which gives them more flexibility heading forward to make upgrades elsewhere on their roster.

Nice to see we got Mike Lowell to play right field – When you take an honest look at the RF platoon of Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney, it should surprise you how much of an upgrade these two are over the Drew/Reddick sinkhole from last year.

  • Sweeney is a career .296/.352/.402 hitter against righties with a .754 career OPS.
  • Ross is a career .282/.349/.563 hitter against lefties with a .912 career OPS.
  • Both are pretty good defenders.

Between the two, that gives you a starting Right Fielder with a career line of .282/.350/.482 and a career .833 OPS. Just to give you an idea of what that kind of production is like – consider Mike Lowell’s .279/.342/.414 line with a career .805 OPS. Obviously, it’d be nice to have one player who produced those kinds of numbers, but it’s not like there’s a shortage of corner outfielders in Major League Baseball should the Red Sox elect to upgrade later on this year. We should be fine.

People need to chill on this pitching thing- The Red Sox are in the market for a #4 starter and a #5 starter. They don’t need Roger Clemens. As is – they may not need anything else at all. Considering John Lackey was historically bad last year, it’s almost inconceivable that even if Daniel Bard falters in his transition from the bullpen to the rotation that he’ll be as bad as Lackey was in 2011. Provided Bard can make it 150 innings (that remains to be seen), he’s already an upgrade. It’s nearly impossible to fathom that the Red Sox don’t hit on one of Vicente Padilla, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Alfredo Aceves and John Maine – or – at least hit enough to ferry us to a returning Dice-K or a trade candidate in June/July. All things considered, while I’m not entirely sold on the idea of this team heading into the year with question marks at the back end of the rotation, I am OK with it.

Simply put, the pitching market is awful right now. There’s no need to get overcommitted or make a bad deal because everyone’s making a lot of noise. There might be a better player available later on this season at a better cost and with the Red Sox having lined up the cash, a better bargaining position post-draft, and motivation to make a big splash – it could pay off to be patient and wait.

The flip side of that is that it appears the Red Sox have some options should they choose to explore them. They have a good shot to land Edwin Jackson, not much of a shot to get Roy Oswalt and if they’re desperate, they can pull down their pants and take a shot from Kenny Williams and get Gavin Floyd. Still, the need isn’t compelling enough for the Red Sox to bum-rush the market and make a deal on anything other than their terms.  After all, these guys are still out there for a reason: there isn’t a robust market for any of them.

While the Red Sox do hold the chips in this situation, it’s still going to be a challenge to convince a free agent to come to Boston on a one-year deal and well below his asking price. If the point of a pillow deal is to build value by padding stats, the American League East isn’t exactly high on the list of desirable destinations. If they can pull it off though, they may find themselves finding the best possible value in a challenging market and in turn – convert their rotation from a question mark, to an unquestionable strength.

Edwin Jackson – in particular – would be a huge steal –  Jackson’s 3.55 FIP in 2011 was better than Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Yovani Gallardo, Gio Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ryan Dempster, Mark Buehrle, Shaun Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer, Jeremy Hellickson and Wandy Rodriguez. His xFIP was better than Floyd, Matt Cain, Daniel Hudson, Danks, Jered Weaver, Marcum, Billingsley, Buehrle and Hellickson.  Considering nearly all of those guys are paid a lot more than $5-6 million a year and/or cost a small country to acquire this offseason, the Red Sox might be getting the best value on the market. Should the Red Sox somehow be able to convince him to take short money and a one-year deal, then their policy of patience should be given it’s proper due.

Which makes it all the more ridiculous that some people are calling this the worst Red Sox offseason in history. In fact, there’s a chance it could be one of their best – Should the Red Sox sign Jackson, they’ll have addressed nearly every major issue the team had in September at the cost of about $12 million dollars. They’ll have upgraded their rotation, added considerable low-risk pitching depth, maintained their bullpen and may have managed to upgrade their lineup and defense. In the process, they’ve avoided risky, long-term contracts and along the way, found some pretty cool guys to liven and lighten a tight, tenuous clubhouse atmosphere. Sprinkle on top what’s sure to be a competitive atmosphere in Spring Training and there’s a very good shot that this team heads into the season a much, much more stable, balanced unit then what we sent to camp in 2011.

Tune out the noise. In an offseason where so much is riding on precision and careful, calculated risks, the Red Sox may have scored a direct hit.

Posted in 2011-2012 Offseason, 2012 Red Sox offseason | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Roy Oswalt makes sense for Red Sox, but do the Sox make sense for him?

January 16, 2012 by Hunter Golden

 

Knee-high socks. Knee-high fastballs. Hooray!

So it seems the Red Sox are still playing hokey-pokey with the non-scrap heap pitching market. Or at least that’s what SI’s John Morosi was saying last night.

The object of undying affection? Roy Oswalt, I love thee.

I’m pretty confident that he’d be a good fit in Boston. There’s been some concern about his back issues and posting some rather gaudy career-lows with the Philadelphia Phillies last year, but I’m as bullish on him now as I was back in November when I wrote this about him:

“However, a look at Oswalt month-to-month indicate that the back injury was almost 100% to blame for his drop off. His April and Septembers were fantastic, with him hanging around his normal 7.0 K/9 ratio. During the middle of the season however, nearly all of his pitches had higher contact rates. If only one or two of his pitches had dropped off a cliff, I’d be worried, but it was all of them. Combined with his walk rate – which even in spite of the injury was fairly consistent- would lead me to conclude that his control wasn’t an issue and it was more an issue of stuff. Oswalt has always been an aggressive pitcher, not known for pitching around hitters.  That’s an issue when your stuff isn’t good – and probably explains the spikes. I think it’s fairly safe to say that the back played an enormous role in his mid-season struggles.”

I’m still sticking with that position, too. Everything about Oswalt points to a big bounce back and simply put, there’s nothing that would indicate that a healthy Roy Oswalt was on the decline.

Dave Cameron, who’s a lot smarter than I am, posted a great piece over at Fangraphs on Friday that really took my points a considerable step further. Amidst the deluge of pro-Oswalt propaganda was this Pitch F/x velocity chart which tracks the speed ranges of Oswalt’s fastball:

This kind of information is always important, but in Oswalt’s case, it applies even more.

Oswalt was never known as a fire baller per sae, but he threw plenty hard – around 93-95mph. The kicker was that it had a ton of life, and as a result was able to generate a ton of swings and misses. The old meme is that pitchers build their entire approach on the mound off their fastball – especially at the Major League level, but for Oswalt, that was doubly the case. He throws strikes with his fastball, rarely going outside the zone. Obviously that’s great if you’ve got a great fastball, but when your velocity dips, the wheels fall off pretty quick.

Last year, it was pretty clear – almost right out of Spring Training – that Oswalt wasn’t really himself. His velocity dipped steadily as he approached his June DL stint and at one point, was barely throwing 90mph. Yikes.

Upon his return in August, he was hampered by a gaudy .400+ BABIP, but once that normalized, so did almost all of Roy Oswalt’s numbers. But most importantly, his fastball came back. In fact, he was throwing harder than he had since the beginning of 2010. It seems pretty clear that by all accounts – that Oswalt’s back played a major role in his performance – but especially in his fastball dip. That would lead one to place a sound bet that he returns to his old self this year.

Behold, the magical Roy Oswalt is back!

It’s safe to say this guy is still a really good pitcher. Whoever gets him is getting a potential middle to front of the rotation starter and yes – if he lands for the rumored $8 million a year he’s looking for, the winning bidder would be getting him at a really great price.

All of that is good. I understand, you understand, and I’m sure most of baseball’s brain trust understands that Roy Oswalt is as safe a bet for a major bounce back next year as anyone.

It’s just that assessing a potential Roy Oswalt-to-the-Red Sox deal isn’t exclusive to just analyzing Oswalt’s ability. Yes, there’s a fit. But it doesn’t mean Roy Oswalt feels that way. Heck – it doesn’t mean the Red Sox feel that way.

Simply put, the way the Red Sox are spending this year, I have legit concerns as to whether they’re willing to fork over that $4-$5 million to sign him, that’s assuming they’re willing to dole $4-$5 million out to anyone right now.

After the signings of Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook, the Sox have followed up by talking to Vincente Padilla on a potential minor league deal as well. With Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard hanging around and a potential Dice-K return in June/July, the Red Sox may be content to stand pat.

While it might be hard to comprehend given the team’s strategy of using their resources to overwhelm the competition in recent offseasons – the dollars and cents clearly mean a lot to this team right now. Yes, Roy Oswalt is out there for $8 million, but with the luxury tax kicking in, that $8 million is more like $11.2 million. The Red Sox may elect – heck, they might even be smart – to head into the season with what they’ve got and look to make an addition when better options are out there and available.

And that, of course… is assuming that Roy Oswalt wants to be on the Red Sox. That’s far from a slam-dunk in and of itself.

If you’re Oswalt, and you’re shopping the idea of a pillow contract, it’s be hard to imagine that Fenway Park and the toughest-hitting division in baseball would be high on your list. Especially when there are other options and offers that may mean more money up-front and just as good a chance to win in a better park and less worrisome division. That would be a big reason not to come to Boston.

And other teams – including some who may not be competitive next year – may play on Oswalt. If Oswalt went at the $8 million price tag that’s been bandied about, then you’re looking at paying him $4 million and then shipping him to a contender for prospects. Especially if you’re a club on the precipice of contending, Oswalt is a guy who helps you, but also gives you somewhat of a parachute if things don’t go according to plan.

The problem with markets like this one and players like Oswalt – is that teams who sit around and wait for the market to play out who would otherwise be out on the Winter Meeting spending sprees – tend to randomly jump into the mix on these sorts of players.

So while I’m excited about the idea of signing Oswalt , I’m skeptical this is as easy as proponents are trying to make it out to be. If the Red Sox can get it done – especially on a one-year deal – then more power to them. There’s just a lot that has to line up in order for that to happen.

Posted in 2011-2012 Offseason, 2012 Red Sox offseason, Roy Oswalt | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Swayed by the idea of Daniel Bard to the rotation, but not convinced… yet

December 30, 2011 by Hunter Golden

I’ve heard some pretty compelling cases in the past few weeks about why Daniel Bard could feasibly start for the Red Sox and truth be told – after a lot of research, I’m beginning to come around to the idea that there’s a pretty strong statistical case for him being in the rotation, but I’m still not completely sold that they should do it.

First off, here’s a lot of what’s floating around out there. Here’s what the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation gave the Red Sox last year:

  • #4 Spot: 31 starts, 176 IP, 6.24 ERA
  • #5 Spot: 33 starts, 185 IP, 5.43 ERA

It’s pretty much impossible to think that Bard would be much worse than that. I think there’s a case to be made that the Red Sox could gamble on a bit of upside here, as placing a bet that Bard can be better than either of those slots is has a very high likelihood for success. Considering they now essentially have three pitchers with closing experience (Bailey, Jenks and Melancon), the bullpen is covered. This might not be a bad idea to pursue some value rather than except what’s already there.

The scouting argument against it is that he’d lose velocity on his fastball, but we need to consider this: Let’s say he loses 2 mph off his fastball thanks to starting – that would make him the hardest throwing starter in the Majors. If he loses 3 mph, then he’s throwing as hard as guys like David Price and Michael Pineda and only a notch below Justin Verlander and Alexi Ogando. That’s not exactly bad. So that myth is debunked.

Sure, he really only ‘has’ a fastball and a slider, but so do many other pitchers – namely Ryan Vogelsong and Michael Pineda, both of whom became pretty good starters last year. With his stuff, there is the potential for him to get away with having two out pitches, as long as he can mix in that change and cutter he’s developed with semi-regularity.

So there. It’s not comprehensive or particularly deep, but those are the main points for the conversion. Fair enough, I say.

But there’s still the issue of his mechanics and the inability to explain away why he falls off a cliff the closer he gets to 80IP. Bard’s had mechanical issues for years and frankly, you just can’t run away from them. What’s worse is how badly he loses his control against RHB as the season progresses. Here are some really interesting charts that Dan Brooks posted in a discussion over at insidethebook.com:

And to make matters worse – there seems to be a parallel between his losing control and inability to release the ball at the same point in his delivery.

I’m pretty convinced there’s a strong statistical case to be made for making the conversion and truth be told – it’s an excellent bet. But his delivery is the sticking point. I suppose that’s what makes it a gamble, right?

I think which side you fall on in the “Bard to the rotation” debate is pretty much going to be determined on how you answer these two questions:

  1. Are Daniel Bard’s mechanical issues attributed to his conditioning (or lack thereof), and if they are…
  2. Would better conditioning that comes from being stretched out mitigate the control issues?

Good luck answering that question. There’s no evidence other than being deeply speculative that would lead me to answer definitively either way. Still, I think that’s what dictates where people head with it. Regardless of what I think, I see the Red Sox gambling on the upside given the conditions in the free agent market. The potential downside in the conversion seems to be minimal, and since there’s more of a case to be made for placing the bet than there is against it being placed – it seems like it’s more likely to be the route the Red Sox take.

Not trying to sway anyone any which way or the other here, but some interesting points for discussion, certainly.

Posted in 2011-2012 Offseason, 2012 Red Sox offseason, Daniel Bard | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Red Sox find a closer: A look at the trade that brought Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox

December 29, 2011 by Hunter Golden

New Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)

So the Red Sox finally found their closer today, trading Josh Reddick, Miles Head and Raul Alcantara to the Oakland A’s in exchange for Andrew Bailey and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. How does this deal look for Boston? At first glance, I’d say ‘good’.

In terms of what we lost:

I’m not really as high on Reddick as some are. I like his power and glove, but his poor plate approach leaves a lot to be desired. I know he wowed the Red Sox faithful last June when he came up, but he came crashing down to earth as his time in the majors went on. He’s had hints of streakiness his entire career, making me wonder whether he’s the every day player people so desperately want him to be. To me, he’s an outfield version of Jed Lowrie’s streaky bat while offering better defense. Long story short – the Sox sold high here.

Miles Head looks like he’s going to be a pretty good first baseman someday, but that someday doesn’t seem to be anytime soon and even if it was it wouldn’t matter because Adrian Gonzalez is chained to both the bag and Fenway Park itself. He, like Lars Anderson, became expendable. Alcantarra’s the scratch ticket here. He’s either a #2/3 starter sometime down the line or a guy who’ll be lucky to sniff AAA. Opinions seem to be all over the map.

Truth be told, the A’s could end up with one or two pretty good players a few years down the line. With their franchise more or less in a holding pattern until they land a new stadium deal, lower level, high ceiling/slightly risky prospects likely have more value for them over the long haul. All in all, the A’s are banking on a ton on upside here, but it seems like a calculated, measured risk.

What did we get?

We got a really good closer who comes with some risks.

Bailey’s detractors would cite his nerve-racking FIP home and road splits, of which there’s almost a full run’s difference the last three years. Some folks chalk that up to him pitching in Oakland and benefitting from pitching in the AL West of which is home to three pitcher’s havens.  It would appear on the surface, that a move to the AL East would be a challenge for him.

The only issue with that is his walk and strike out rates are the two stats most adversely affected by the switch in scenery. Technically, that makes the stadium thing all but moot. For park effects to truly come into play, the ball has to be, well… put in play.

Since the statistical picture looks a bit murky, you can turn to scouting (see, they have an important role, too!) for a logical explanation, one of which I buy: that Bailey pitches more aggressively in Oakland and pounds the strike zone more because he knows a mistake isn’t likely to kill him there. Trying to nibble or be more selective on the road drives him away from his core skill set (throwing fucking hard and challenging hitters) and causes him to put up fatter numbers.

What makes me rest at ease is actually a logical conclusion based off of a combination of what I just mentioned above and more plain statistical common sense. Basically, the home/road splits are born out of paranoia that he won’t succeed in the AL East in more hitter friendly parks – but truth be told, the rest of the parks in his old division are more pitcher-friendly. So obviously, it’s a skill lapse (as opposed to park factors) that are causing him to underperform on the road as opposed to home.  What those are, I don’t know exactly. I do know he had an incomprehensibly high .375 BABIP last year, which means he was horrendously unlucky.

He did give up a lot more hits and extra base hits with runners on base, which could point to some struggles pitching from the stretch, but could also be chalked up to the unusually high BABIP. Basically, I’d expect those numbers to regress to the mean this year and he levels off.

He brings a solid repertoire to the table, with three main pitches – a fastball, curveball and cutter. The fastball is his most potent weapon, and he can spot it as low as 93mph to as high as 97mph. He throws a nice 90-92mph cutter that he can toss for strikes, although he generally relies more on the fastball to get players out. He has a nifty curve that he can get across, but you generally will only see it used earlier in counts to help him get ahead. He’s aggressive against Righties, but generally likes to stay down and away. He takes the same approach to lefties, but is better able to work off of his side of the plate. When he misses, it’s usually when he goes up and away from the batter.

The risk with Bailey isn’t his stuff (which, btw – is pretty impressive) so much as it is his injury history making his stuff the central issue heading forward. In a weird way, I think of Bailey kind of in the same lens as Roy Oswalt last year, who pitched much of the season injured. Oswalt is also known for pitching aggressive and pounding the strike zone. His velocity and stuff allowed him to get a lot of swing and misses in the past, but with the back injury, the control was there, the movement wasn’t and well- he got hit a lot more. While injuries explain Oswalt, they might also serve as a potential warning with Bailey. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and missed part of last year with a sore elbow. It’s not the end of the world on a team with three guys with closing experience, but if the movement of his pitches drops off a bit, he might start getting hit a lot. With a full offseason to get fully healthy though, I’d be willing to take that risk. If he stays in good condition, he’ll be the same elite closer that is a two time All Star and won Rookie of the Year honors in 2009.

The major sticking point here though – is that the Red Sox gained some much needed flexibility with their pitching staff. If I’ve learned anything watching the Epstein/Cherington crew operate, it’s that they value flexibility and adaptability over anything else. Whatever move gives them the most options is usually the one they pursue. Needless to say, this move does that in a big way. They essentially have taken three under developed farm system products (Reddick, Lowrie and Weilland) & two high-risk prospects and spun them into a potential All Star closer and setup man (who also has experience closing) at a killer price and locked up for three years at least. Not too shabby.

Making things more intriguing is the thought of Daniel Bard being moved to the starting rotation. While I’m not sold on this – yet – it does allow the Red Sox some room to experiment. Should Bard start and be adequate, then they’ve essentially doubled his value. If he’s a guy they feel like replacing, they can upgrade at the trade deadline and move Bard back into the pen – taking it from good to scary good. Essentially, this move could be the equivalent of acquiring two pitchers mid season.

Overall – I like this trade considering what the Red Sox have on the table tonight. The focus heading forward will solely be on acquiring a starter and with the money saved not having to ink a big-money closer, they’ll have more resources to play with.

Posted in 2011-2012 Offseason, 2012 Red Sox offseason, Andrew Bailey | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Thinking out of the box: Because the pitching market sucks.

December 26, 2011 by Hunter Golden

Could Ryan Dempster be a worthwhile tire to kick?

As the offseason has hummed along, two things have become really obvious:

1.)  The starting pitcher trade market sucks.

2.)  The starting pitcher free agent market sucks harder.

Keeping those two important pieces of information in mind, it might be time for the Red Sox to start thinking of some folks who might not be on the active radar right now to see if they can find some value… or should I say – something that loosely resembles value. If there isn’t a market you like – then make one.

So on the heels of my Christmas roast hang-over, I drummed up some names that might be of interest to the Red Sox. Keep in mind – all of these guys have their challenges/issues/lolwhatareyouthinking aspects to their skills, a potential deal to nab them, etc. No one here is perfect. Perfect things are saved for boxes. Here, there is no box.

Ryan Dempster – The numbers on Dempster are pretty straightforward – he’s a solid pitcher who had a rough patch early last season. While his ERA spiked on the back of a .324 BABIP last year, his peripherals stayed consistent across the board. He’s maintained a FIP in the high 3.80’s/low 3.90’s for much of his career, and that remained consistent in 2011. His xFIP actually improved which would suggest he’s probably got plenty left in the tank. He’s hovered around a 70-73% league average LOB% throughout his career, which means he’s projectable. While there might be better options out on the market, there might not be many as reliable.

That being said, acquiring Dempster could pose a genuine challenge to the prospective bidder. The first issue to overcome is Dempster’s 10 & 5 rights that allow him to veto any trade to any team at virtually any time. If Dempster’s not interested in coming to Boston, everything else is moot. If he were interested, there’s the issue of what to do with his contract. He’s guaranteed $13 million next year before he has a player option for 2013 at $14 million. To most teams, that’s a lot of money to spend on a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. However, to a team that’s so close to getting over the top – like the Red Sox are – they might be willing to eat a year if the Cubs pick up some money.

The deal breaker might be that the Cubs would view dealing Dempster now as selling low. Dempster’s surface statistics stunk big time and he posted his lowest WAR total in four years. Given how good he looks beneath the surface, Epstein and Hoyer may decide that waiting until the trade deadline is the wisest course of action. Of course, Dempster is older so there is a chance he regresses suddenly, but it doesn’t appear likely.

There are some things sitting on the periphery of a Dempster to the Red Sox deal that might be appealing to both sides that are worth mentioning. Obviously, the Cubs know the Red Sox system well, meaning they could find solid value for Dempster. On the flip side, with all the talk of converting a reliever to the rotation, they Red Sox could bring someone in who’s actually done it – and succeeded. He could serve as a great support system for Bard or Aceves provided they’re converted in Spring Training.  Also – there’s that minor issue of the compensation owed to the Red Sox due to Epstein’s departure earlier this fall. That could potentially drive the price down a little bit. None of these things is a deal maker or breaker, but they don’t hurt – even if the likelihood of their contributing to the success of the deal are negligible.

Dealing for Dempster would be complicated and the Red Sox might not be as motivated as they would need to be in order to put a deal for Dempster together, but again – we’re not looking at slam dunks here. We’re looking at out of the box options and Dempster is certainly worth kicking tires on.

Carl Pavano – Pavano might be a legitimate option for the Red Sox to consider in 2012. First, the injury prone label can probably be put to bed. He’s logged 199 IP+ for three consecutive seasons. He eats innings. Yes, I said it – Carl Pavano is an innings eater. While his K/9 is unspectacular, his walk rate is very, very low and he’s posted a decent GB%. A little concerning is the increase in both his FIP and xFIP this year in spite of an average HR/FB %, LOB% and BABIP. When combined with his age it certainly poses a question as to whether the slight spike was a bump in the road or the first significant sign of a potential decline.

In spite of that, there doesn’t seem to be any indication that Pavano’s ready to fall off a cliff even if there’s a decline. If that does happen – the risk is fairly minimal, as he’s only owed one year and $8 million.  Given his age and subtle signs of a potential decline, I think he could be had at a pretty reasonable price. The only wild card is where the Twins see themselves. While it doesn’t appear as if a Morneau/Mauer rebound would immediately put them back in contention, the Twins may feel differently. Still, it doesn’t appear as if Pavano is a long-term solution either way. I think the likelihood of dealing for him is a lot more viable than some would realize.

Brandon McCarthy – This one’s tricky. McCarthy wasn’t just the best under the radar pitcher of last year; he was one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues, period. He posted an eye-popping 2.86 FIP and a 3.30 xFIP. While Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia got all the attention for their high win and strikeout totals, McCarthy had a better FIP than both. He had a lower BABIP and LOB% suggesting he was lucky, but not that lucky. His HR/FB was an amazingly low 6.4%, which you could attribute to Oakland, but even if you account for regression – even at his crappiest he was never really above the league average. He’s got a low BB/9 and a respectable 6.49 K/9.

McCarthy is almost a completely different pitcher today than what he was in previous years. He dropped his arm slot, worked in a sinker and a cutter to go along with his four seamer and change up and viola. It seems to have made all the difference. The results have been obvious but he’s also added 1 MPH onto his velocity. He’ll never be a strikeout pitcher, but he’s developed the tools to be a serious threat for a long time. At 28, he’s figured it out at just the right time.

So why would Oakland want to trade a 28 year old, cost-controlled, ace potential starter? The answer is – they probably wouldn’t. But there may be some interesting angles the Red Sox could play with. To begin with – the Red Sox and A’s have already been in significant trade talks for Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey. McCarthy might further the dialogue. The two have talked aggressively for a good reason – the two sides match up well. The A’s are more or less in a holding pattern until either A.) a new stadium is approved in Oakland or B.) they’re given permission to move to San Jose. That means the chances of competing in the short term are – and really should be – slim to none. Stocking up high-upside, young prospects is priority in Oakland, making them more likely to be interested in Boston’s lower-level talent than others would be. Long story, short – the A’s would be willing to wait out the development of high-upside prospects while other teams wouldn’t.

The other piece here is that the A’s may see this as an opportunity to come out as mega-flippers here. McCarthy was the epitome of a dumpster-dive and the A’s may be willing to cut any further risk as he heads into his arbitration years and get a decent haul of prospects for him. Last year, McCarthy was as close to worthless as you could find. This year, he could easily nab 2 top prospects. The A’s might decide that he’s unlikely to repeat last year’s successes and cut ties. The only problem is – the A’s might not be the only team thinking that. Teams might want to see another year of production before taking the plunge. He’s a big gamble, but he’s looking like a strong #2/#3 pitcher at the Major League level heading forward.

Brett Meyers – OK, before I dive into the matter around this guy, let’s get this out of the way – he’s a reliable pitcher. His strikeouts went down last year, but so did his walks. His ERA jumped, but his FIP and xFIP were a half run and one whole run better, respectively. He also played for the 2011 Astros, who were an atrocious baseball team. Spikes on a team like that shouldn’t be surprising. His big issue is his 14.2% HR/FB ratio. At Fenway, that could spell bad news. His contract wouldn’t smart too much at $9 million with a club option for 2013. He’s a solid pitcher, but not a great one – so don’t expect the asking price to be astronomical. Motivated Sellers + motivated buyers + decent price + decent value = prime candidate for a deal…. Right? Well, not exactly. There’s kind of this problem…

That being that he’s a potential PR issue for a team that frankly, has enough of those to deal with. Back in 2006, Meyers was arrested for punching his girlfriend in the head outside of a bar – in Boston of all places. She failed to press charges and the two have been in counseling for forever, but trading for an alleged wife beater on a team that has a guy on it who is divorcing his wife who has cancer makes this the most profoundly anti-wife team maybe ever. I just can’t imagine the headlines around this guy should the Sox pick him up.

The flip side of that is, well… the New England Patriots, who’ve brought plenty of ‘reclamation’ projects into the city had have had success and have yet to be set on fire by Dan Shaughnessey. The flipside of that argument is that the Patriots travel through the space-time continuum like the Borg. They generally don’t care what the press says and approach the market with a steely-eyed stoicism that would make Bjorn Borg look jittery. The Red Sox on the other hand, are very PR conscious.  All things considered, I just don’t see this as a very likely option, but from a skills standpoint, Meyers – or a pitcher very much like him – could be what the doctor ordered.

Posted in 2011-2012 Offseason, 2012 Red Sox offseason | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Older Posts »

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 113 other followers